O que é um SureBet?

Um SureBet, ou arbitragem de aposta, é um tipo de aposta onde é certo que você ganhe dinheiro, e qualquer que seja o resultado do acontecimento sobre o qual apostou. Não pode perder.

No BetBrain, cobrimos dois tipos de apostas, os Surebet ?à compra?, onde é certo que você ganha apostando sobre todos os resultados possíveis, e os Surebet ?Compra/Venda?, onde é certo que você ganha comprando e vendendo ao mesmo tempo sobre o mesmo resultado.

Consider a tennis match between Hewitt and Federer, where two bookmakers, Book 1 and Book 2, offer odds like this:

	Hewitt	Federer
Book 1	3.00	1.40
Book 2	2.65	1.55

The bookmakers here operate with odds that are somewhat different. In fact they are so different, that you can make a SureBet by betting at both outcomes.

Assume you want to get a payout of ?100 no matter what happens. By betting ?100 / 3 for Hewitt with Book 1 and ?100 / 1.55 for Federer with Book 2, you will achieve it. Your total stake will be

?100 / 3 + ?100 / 1.55 = ?33.33 + ?64.52 = ?97.85.

At the end of the day, one of the bets is won and one is lost, but irrespective which one comes through, you will realize a profit of ?100 - ?97.85 = ?2.15. Making ?2.15 on an amount of ?97.85 is a return of 2.2%. Not bad for an investment horizon of one or two days.

In the example above, there were only two outcomes. But all-back SureBets will work with any type of bet as long as you can cover all possible outcomes. For instance you can make a SureBet on a football match by betting for both home, draw and away.

Let us look at the same example, but now with a betting exchange, Exch, involved. The odds are like this:

		Hewitt
Book 1		3.00
Exch	Back	2.65
	Lay	2.75

The betting exchange charges some commission on winnings, let?s say 3% of net profits on bets. This means that the net odds, after deduction of commissions, look like this:

		Hewitt
Book 1		3.00
Exch	Back	2.60
	Lay	2.80

The Lay odds of 2.80 means that it?s possible for you to take a bet of Hewitt to win and, net of commission, you?ll be required to pay out 1.80 times the stake in case Hewitt defeats Federer, but will receive the stake if he doesn?t.

Now assume that you place ?100 for Hewitt to win with Book 1 and at the same time lay ?100 at the exchange. There are two possible outcomes:

1. Federer wins. In this case you lose your bet at Book 1, but you receive the stake for the ?100 bet you accepted at Exch. Your net profit is ?0.
2. Hewitt wins. In this case you have to do a payment of (2.8 - 1) x ?100 at the exchange, a net loss of ?180. At Book 1 however, you are paid 3 x ?100, resulting in a net win of ?200 at Book 1. In total, you have a net profit of ?20.

In this way you cannot lose and you?ll win as much as ?20. As with the all-back SureBets, it is possible place the two bets in such a way, that your profit is the same irrespective of what happens.

Para cada Surebet, encontrará um "link" para a nossa calculadora de Surebet. Ao clicar, encontrará ajuda para calcular as apostas correctas a serem feitas. A calculadora permite calcular as apostas para as melhores Surebets possíveis do evento. Pode também fazer os cálculos para as probabilidades de outros corretores, o que por vezes, apesar das probabilidades poderem ser inferiores, pode ser mais interessante para si, por exemplo, se dispuser de dinheiro na conta do corretor em questão, ou se tiver a possibilidade de apostar uma quantia mais elevada. A calculadora Surebet pode inclusivamente efectuar este tipo de cálculos na divisa que utilizar incluindo as despesas que deverá pagar nas bolsas de apostas.

Para beneficiar de um Surebet, deve ser cliente nos 3 bookmakers. O cálculo dos lucros não inclui as despesas de transferências de dinheiro para e desde os bookmakers. Há igualmente um risco, ver as apostas anuladas pelos os bookmakers, mesmo após ter sido colocado neles. Por último, certos bookmakers exigem, para poder aceitar a vossa aposta, que investe em apostas múltiplas.